What is it ?
The bathtub effect is in essence, some of our “drains” for removing excess carbon dioxide from the atmosphere have already started clogging and can’t easily be unclogged.
According to an article from NY Times:
"Basically, the atmosphere is like a bathtub with a partially opened drain. Carbon dioxide from burning fuels and forests is flowing in twice as fast as it is being absorbed by plants and the ocean, and some of those 'sinks' are in fact getting saturated, it appears, meaning that the “drain” is clogging a bit."

picture taken from
http://i.treehugger.comFor example, according to an article from The Guardian titled "Sea absorbing less CO2, scientists discover"
"Scientists have issued a new warning about climate change after discovering a sudden and dramatic collapse in the amount of carbon emissions absorbed by the Sea of Japan.
The shift has alarmed experts, who blame global warming.
The world's oceans soak up about 11bn tonnes of human carbon dioxide pollution each year, about a quarter of all produced, and even a slight weakening of this natural process would leave significantly more CO2 in the atmosphere. That would require countries to adopt much stricter emissions targets to prevent dangerous rises in temperature."
Corinne Le Quéré, an expert in ocean carbon storage at the University of East Anglia, said: "We don't think the ocean is just going to completely stop taking our carbon dioxide emissions, but if the effect weakens then it has real consequences for the atmosphere."
Back to the NY Times, it states
In a tub, this is a recipe for a flood. In the climate system, Dr. Sterman says — echoing many climate scientists — it is a loud message that a prompt start is needed in curbing and then cutting emissions if you want to cut the chances of passing dangerous thresholds. He recently wrote a Policy Forum paper in Science reviewing his and other research on widespread misunderstanding of this kind of risk, including a 2007 study he was a co-author of in which 84 percent of 212 M.I.T. participating grad students drew curves for proposed emission trends that would result in concentrations continuing to climb.
“The erroneous belief that stabilizing emissions would quickly stabilize the climate supports wait-and-see policies but violates basic laws of physics,” Dr. Sterman concluded.